2018 Home Run Derby Odds, Wagers and Predictions

2018 Home Run Derby - Alex Bregman

The 2018 Home Run Derby signals a break in a rigorous MLB schedule. It’s a time for beer, friends and relaxation. Sadly, it just isn’t a time for the very best mashers baseball has to offer.

Past winners like Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge aren’t back to defend their hardware, but a drop-off in star power won’t completely kill the hype.

Bryce Harper is throwing caution to the wind, participating in the swing-cursing event in front of his home crowd at Nationals Park. That’s being done in the face of a down year for Harper’s Nats, while his pending free agency this offseason could have this be a swan song of sorts.

That’s drama to be had for another day, though. For now, Nationals fans can soak up Harper on a big stage as he tries to land them a title of a different variety.

It probably won’t be easy, as Harper does still face a pretty loaded field. Regardless, he’s the top favorite (+225) to take first place, per Bovada and other MLB betting sites.

To get you ready for tonight’s star-studded affair, let’s take a look at some of the best Home Run Derby prop bets and how you might want to wager:

Who Will Reach the Finals?

Before you get to the end and predict a winner, you might as well try vouching for who will reach the final for each side.

Bovada splits up the AL and NL when they’re looking at the odds to reach the HR Derby finale:

AL

Bryce Harper – Nationals (+110)

Javier Baez – Cubs (+260)

Max Muncy – Dodgers (+330)

Freddie Freeman – Braves (+350)

Harper ranks 8th in the majors with 23 homers, which is just six out of first place in all of baseball.

He’s tailed off a bit after a scorching start to the 2018 스마일벳 MLB season, but he can still mash with the best of them and is understandably the favorite to reach the final of this group.

Harper is probably the most talented power hitter here and he’s also hitting in his home park. You’re not even picking him to flat out win here, either. You’re getting a sweet price at +110 just to bet on him to get to the final.

While I love Harper here, I think you can play around with some flier bets.

Baez (19 homers) has been mashing all year, while Muncy has literally come out of nowhere to bust out of the Dodgers.

Of this group, though, nobody is as dangerous as Freddie Freeman at +350. Not only has he hit in Nationals Park a lot over the years (the Nats are his NL East rivals), but he has a ton of power and is known for simply connecting at an elite rate.

I like Freeman as a flier bet, but I can’t go away from Harper in his home park.

Bryce Harper +110

NL

Jesus Aguilar – Brewers (+175)

Kyle Schwarber – Cubs (+190)

Rhys Hoskins – Phillies (+260)

Alex Bregman – Astros (+350)

You can make a similar bet over on the other side and this is a wager I feel is very wide open.

All of these guys can club the ball, but Aguilar understandably leads the way in odds due to his 24 home runs (6th best in the majors).

It’s tough to bypass Aguilar here, but Schwarber has some serious power, Bregman has been red hot and Hoskins was a monster as a rookie last year.

I’m not into trusting Schwarber in this spot and I don’t love Hoskins, either. Hoskins has seen his power dip a bit in his second MLB season, while Schwarber has never been an overly efficient hitter.

Both of these guys are still viable bets in a chill situation like a HR Derby, but I’d rather roll with the favorite or drop down and get elite value with Bregman.

Bregman is an interesting play at +350, just because he comes in about as hot as Aguilar does. I see the love for Aguilar in this spot, but I’ll actually roll with the money here and ride the Astros slugger to bit cash. VISIT HERE

If you want to play it safe, Aguilar (+175) is the obvious choice.

Alex Bregman+350

First Round Matchups – Most Home Runs

You can wager on who will hit the most home runs, as Bovada gives you a long list of matchups to break down.

This doesn’t necessarily mean these players will actually face off against each other in round one, but instead, just has you betting on which hitter will register more long balls when compared to another.

Again, Bovada has a lot to pick through, but here are my favorites to wager on:

Alex Bregman (+160) vs. Javier Baez (-200)

This is one of the better options, as I obviously am a fan of Bregman’s power and recent form. Baez is a terrific hitter in his own right, but the value with Bregman (+160) calls to me here.

Even if you don’t love Bregman to get to the final, his value in topping Baez’s home run count in the first round is quite appealing.

Alex Bregman+160

Rhys Hoskins (+160) vs. Bryce Harper (-200)

I’m not actually willing to go against Harper on this one, but Hoskins can mash it and you just never know what to expect in these situations.

I prefer to back Harper, but Hoskins at +160 is pretty tempting.

Bryce Harper -200

Freddie Freeman (+170) vs. Bryce Harper (-210)

If I am drawn to Hoskins at +160, you better believe I’ll think twice about bypassing Freeman at +170. I still think this is Bryce’s event to lose, but this is a gaudy flier bet if I’ve ever seen one.

Bryce Harper -210

Who Will Win?

There are quite a few Home Run Derby prop bets 레이스벳 to consider tonight, but the big one is who will actually win it.

Bryce Harper is the top favorite as he swings for the fences in his home park, but the odds across the board will have you thinking of going in a number of directions:

Bryce Harper – Nationals (+225)

Kyle Schwarber – Cubs (+350)

Jesus Aguilar – Brewers (+500)

Javier Baez – Cubs (+500)

Max Muncy – Dodgers (+650)

Freddie Freeman – Braves (+750)

Rhys Hoskins – Phillies (+900)

Alex Bregman – Astros (+1000)

Maybe it’s the chalky play, but I won’t go against Harper in his home park.

He is one of the best home run hitters to begin with, but he seems ready to give something back to the fans in what is in a sense a goodbye to the Nats.

He always said he’d participate in the HR Derby if it was held at Nationals Park, so here he is with a chance to deliver a big performance.

Harper’s my favorite pick when you look at sheer power and narrative, but there is still a lot of value to be had with this wager.

Jesus Aguilar gets you excited at +500, while Max Muncy (+650) has been way too hot to ignore. If you want elite betting value, though, I’m looking at Freddie Freeman (+750) and Alex Bregman (+1000).

Those guys are all tempting (and those four values, in particular, are the flier bets I’d target), but it’s Bryce Harper or bust for me tonight at Nationals Park. Here’s to a fun show and Harper putting on a show.