Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB Series Pick
MLB Series Pick Red Sox vs Yankees - Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
Man am I on a roll with my MLB Series Picks.
After a profitable weekend last week, I have already hit my lone MLB Series Pick for this week as the Marlins have taken the first two of three from the Giants as slight +105 underdogs.
The Marlins may very well be the worst team in baseball, but that’s two weeks in a row I have hit a Marlins winner as they swept the Tigers last week at the same +105 odds before taking to the tune Giants early this week.
This series hasn’t been all that close.
Trevor Richards allowed a home run to the first batter he faced on Tuesday night in Joe Panik, but that would be the only run he allowed and one of just two hits surrendered as the Marlins hopped all over Jeff Samardzija and the Giants ‘pen and won the opener by a convincing 11-3 count.
As I suggested in my write-up for this series, Pablo Lopez stayed white-hot at home with six innings of one-run ball over the Giants and outdueled Madison Bumgarner in the process, although the Giants’ ace allowed just two runs himself in six innings. Two seventh-inning runs padded the lead and the Marlins won game two by a 4-2 final and have the chance for the sweep on Thursday afternoon behind Sandy Alcantara.
It’s another winner in my pocket as I’ll break down a couple more MLB Series Picks that kick off Thursday, beginning here with the always-entertaining Red Sox versus Yankees series, a four-game set that will pit two World Series threats against one another for the second time this season.
Let’s take a look at the odds for this series, courtesy of BetOnline.
Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB Series Odds
BOSTON RED SOX
-135
NEW YORK YANKEES
+115
Now let’s take a gander at the probable pitching matchups for this four-game set, courtesy of MLB.com.
Thursday: Sale (BOS) vs. Happ (NYY)
Friday: Rodriguez (BOS) vs. TBD (NYY)
Saturday: Porcello (BOS) vs. TBD (NYY)
Sunday: Price (BOS) vs. TBD (NYY)
Let’s break down these pitching matchups in detail before getting to the offenses, bullpens and my final pick!
Thursday: Chris Sale (1-6, 4.19 ERA) vs. J.A. Happ (4-3, 5.09 ERA)
If you’ve followed Chris Sale’s season, you know that the ERA we see above isn’t doing him any justice.
The first few starts of the season were rough on the talented lefty as he posted a 6.30 ERA across March and April and was striking out hitters at just a 9.60 K/9 rate, a far cry from the standards he’s set for himself throughout his big league career.
However, as expected, the perennial Cy Young candidate has pitched to a stout 2.23 ERA with an eye-popping 15.59 K/9 clip – including a 17-strikeout performance – here in the month of May. Sale also owns a 2.09 FIP and 2.59 xFIP for the month, numbers that suggest he deserves every bit of that much-improved ERA figure.
Sale hasn’t been completely unhittable in his last two starts, both against the Astros, but he still held them to four runs over 11.1 innings with 15 strikeouts.
The Yankees were one of the teams to get to Sale early in the season when he allowed four earned runs in five innings with six strikeouts.
He’s struck out double-digits in four of his last five starts and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see him get to that figure again considering the role he is on.
Happ’s season also didn’t start on the right note after re-signing with the Yankees in the offseason, and while he mixed some nice starts in after the rough beginning, he’s back to struggling again in his last few outings.
Happ posted a 4.68 ERA in the month of April, and the number would look a lot worse if he hadn’t hurled seven shutout innings over the lowly Giants in his final start of the month.
That said, May got off to a rough start with four earned runs allowed in just 5.2 innings against the Twins while he now owns a 5.61 ERA and 5.59 FIP for the month of May thanks to yielding 12 earned runs over his last three starts spanning just 15 innings. He is coming off a quality start over the Royals with 10 strikeouts, but Happ’s inconsistency has been the only consistent aspect of his season to this point.
Happ has pitched well in his career against the Red Sox, going 8-4 with a stout 3.05 ERA across 21 starts and 22 appearances.
One thing to note about this matchup is that the weather for the series opener calls for thunderstorms right around game time, so this 슈어벳 matchup could be pushed back to a doubleheader Friday afternoon or perhaps this will be the Friday night matchup before the probable Friday starters get pushed into Saturday afternoon.
Regardless, I don’t expect the probables listed above to change, however the day they pitch might.
Advantage: Red Sox
Friday: Eduardo Rodriguez (5-3, 5.04 ERA) vs. TBD
Rodriguez was blasted for 11 earned runs against in 11 innings a two-start span in two of this last three starts, but he rebounded nicely with six innings of one-run ball in a win over the Astros in Houston his last time out.
Like Happ, Rodriguez’s season has been littered with inconsistency.
He allowed 11 earned runs over his first two starts of the season, then proceeded to allow two earned runs or fewer in four of his next six outings. The two ugly starts reference above followed before the gem against the Astros.
It’s tough to know what to expect from Rodriguez, although I can tell you that his 5.04 ERA is well above his 3.60 FIP and 3.89 xFIP this season while he once again sports a healthy strikeout rate in the form of a 9.79 figure. He’s limited walks to under three per nine innings and his 1.04 HR/9 mark is just fine.
He’s been unfortunate to allow a .345 BABIP on the season, well above the .298 mark he has for his career. He’s also stranded just 66.5% of baserunners in 2019, a number that will rise towards his 73.2% career mark as the season moves along.
Rodriguez has fared well against the Yankees, producing a 3.89 ERA across 12 starts and 14 career appearances against his rival while lowering that mark slightly to 3.74 across eight career starts at Yankee Stadium.
We are seeing three TBD’s in the four games for New York as their rotation is in a little bit of flux at the moment. C.C. Sabathia was placed on the IL after his last start in Baltimore and James Paxton returned from the IL to start Wednesday’s series finale with the Padres.VISIT HERE
However, we will get Masahiro Tanaka and Domingo German in this series, we just don’t know on what day and in what order. It makes it a little tougher to handicap the series, however, I have plenty of reasoning for my pick ready when I discuss the two teams’ offenses.
That said, based on the Yankees’ schedule, I would suggest that this would be the game in which we see Domingo German get the start while Saturday’s game would be either a bullpen day or the Yankees will call someone up from the minors to start that game.
However, a strong possibility of a PPD on Thursday throws all of this out of whack, so I will leave this start as a TBD for the home side and no advantage either way.
Saturday: Rick Porcello (4-4, 4.41 ERA) vs. TBD
Porcello may have won the Cy Young in the 2016 season, but he’s very much been a mixed bag since, posting an ERA north of 4.27 in every season since and that would stand true in 2019 if the season ended today.
Furthermore, his 4.41 ERA is under his 4.72 FIP and 5.26 xFIP, so it hasn’t been a rebound season for Porcello like I’m sure he hoped it would be.
Earlier in his career, Porcello was a big-time ground-ball pitcher featuring that sinker that had him inducing balls on the ground at rates as high as 55.3%. That rate has plummeted all the way to 40.4% this season and the home run number is up once again with a 1.42 HR/9 on the season despite a more than reasonable 11.6% HR/FB rate.
That said, he’s been good of late with a quality start in each of his last three outings while he’s allowed more than three earned runs in just one of his last nine starts.
After a 5.52 ERA in the March/April period, Porcello has settled down to the tune of a 3.34 ERA here in May, although the 4.28 FIP and 5.28 xFIP in May paint a different picture.
Porcello has actually been real good in his career against the Yankees, posting a 3.11 ERA across 22 starts against the Bronx Bombers. However, plenty of that success has been at home, whether it be Boston or Detroit, as he has been hit for a 5.56 ERA across seven career starts at Yankee Stadium.
Based on the Yankees’ schedule, I would suggest that this would be the game in which we see Domingo German get the start while Friday’s game would be either a bullpen day or the Yankees will call someone up from the minors to start 토즈토토 Friday night.
As mentioned above, I would expect a bullpen day or a minor league starter in this one for the Yankees, but the weather on Thursday could play a factor into who gets the ball to open this one up for New York.
Sunday: David Price (2-2, 2.83 ERA) vs. TBD
Sale, Rodriguez, and Porcello have seen inconsistency in their respective games this season, however, Price has been a rock for this rotation despite missing a couple of starts in the middle of May.
Price allowed exactly four runs across six innings in his first two starts of the season, but has allowed three runs or less in each of his next seven starts, two runs or less in six of those seven and a shutout in four of the seven, although we can take one off of each of these as he was pulled with the flu after just two-thirds of an innings against the Astros last weekend.
Still, Price came back to throw six shutout innings, allowing just three hits and a walk while punching out six in a no-decision against the Indians on Tuesday.
His 2.83 ERA is more or less supported by his 3.24 FIP and 3.33 xFIP while he’s striking out hitters at a 10.01 K/9 rate which would go down as a career-high if the season ended today.
He’s suppressed walks to the tune of a 2.08 BB/9 clip, a really good way to keep the runs off the board.
Price has had his issues with the Yankees, however, with a career 4.90 ERA against them in a huge 41-start sample and also a 4.83 ERA in 21 starts at Yankee Stadium.
Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB Series Pick
This is the most juice I have laid in my MLB Series Picks this season, but I have a big reason as to why.
Looking at the offenses, I’ll begin with the Yankees.
Considering three of the four Red Sox starters in this series are left-handed pitchers, it makes the most sense to look at their numbers from the left side.
Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees are one of the best offenses in baseball as they rank sixth with a .344 wOBA and fifth with a .207 ISO against righties..
However, flip it over to lefties and the Yankees, rather surprisingly, become one of baseball’s weakest offenses as their .295 wOBA ranks 23rd as does their .139 ISO. Furthermore, their 27.2% strikeout rate against lefties is the third-highest mark in baseball, making the matchup against Chris Sale an exceedingly difficult one for the Bombers.
Sale could very well go in and strike out 15 Yankees on Thursday night, or whenever he pitches in this series. Rodriguez and Price are both striking out the opposition at rates above 10 strikeouts per nine innings, so they could very well go in and strike out double-digit Yankees as well.
New York is also zapped of power against lefties, a favorable stat for these left-handed Red Sox starters.
Right away, I believe the Red Sox have a huge advantage in the game started by Sale to be sure, but I also very much like their chances behind Rodriguez and especially Price on Sunday Night Baseball.
LET’S ALSO KEEP IN MIND:
hat the Red Sox offense was very slow out of the gate, but have been among the league’s best since. Their huge .362 wOBA over the last 30 days ranks them second only to the Twins.
The Red Sox bullpen is under some scrutiny at the moment after blowing a big lead against the Indians on Tuesday, but they still rank 12th with a 4.12 ERA and ninth with a 4.07 FIP.
That said, the ‘pen advantage is all Yankees with a 3.63 ERA, good for fourth, and a 3.60 FIP, good for second only to the Astros and their 3.44 bullpen FIP.
That said, the stout Yankees bullpen isn’t going to be nearly enough for me to get off the Sox in this one.
Boston has three lefties going against an offense that can’t hit lefties. They also sport the league’s second-best offenses essentially since the end of April and their bullpen, albeit roughed up the other night, is solid enough that I’m not losing any sleep over late-inning situations with a lead.
I’ll take the Red Sox as road favorites to win at least three of the four games in this series over their arch rival.
